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In our Key Messages series we try to keep things simple and concentrate on the key messages. We’ve used evidence from official sources to back up those messages but have tried not to overburden the reader with information.
This note presents some key messages from the labour market in relation to what jobs people do and the industries they work in will look like in the future. The full report 'Labour Market Projections 2007 to 2017' is available from the Futureskills Scotland website.
Projections can only ever give an indication of what might happen in the future. They are best at predicting broad movements and changes rather than precise numbers. They should be used as part of the process of trying to understand the future and alongside judgement and knowledge on what might happen in certain industries, occupations or areas.
Key messages
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There will be modest growth in the number of new jobs in Scotland over the next ten years but many job opportunities will be created by the need to replace workers who leave employment.
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It is projected that there will be around 100,000 job opportunities each year in Scotland between 2007 and 2017.
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Most of the job openings in the next ten years will arise in service industries and managerial and professional occupations.
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The trend in employment is towards a higher skilled workforce. There will be fewer employees with no qualifications and a higher proportion of employees will be educated to degree level and above.
How will the number of jobs change between 2007 and 2017?
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There will be a modest growth in the number of jobs in Scotland.
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Employment in Scotland has steadily grown from 2.3 million in 1982 to 2.6 million in 2007.
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This trend is expected to continue in the future with total employment in Scotland expected to increase by 84,000 by 2017. This is a three per cent increase in the number of jobs between now and 2017.
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The balance between male and female employment has changed significantly over the last two decades as shown in Figure 1. However, in recent years the distribution of employment between men and women has stabilised and is much more even. This trend is set to continue with gender shares projected to remain constant between now and 2017.
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Most employment growth since 1982 has been in part-time work and self employment (Figure 2). In future, the fastest growth in employment will be in part-time employment. The number of full-time employees will be fairly steady and the number of people in self-employment is expected to decrease slightly over the same period.
Figure 1. Historic and projected employment by gender 2007-2017.
Figure 2. Historic and projected employment by status, 2007-2017
 
Which industries will have job opportunities over the next ten years?
Figure 3. Job openings by industry 2007-2017
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Although the number of jobs overall will increase only modestly in Scotland over the next ten years there will still be plenty of opportunities created by the need to replace workers who leave employment.
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We call this 'replacement demand' and it means that there will be job opportunities in all industries over the next ten years - even in industries which will see the total number of jobs decline.
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Figure 3 shows that the number of job opportunities is expected to be greatest in:
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Other business services (213,000 new job openings);
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Health and social work (169,000); and
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Retail and distribution (164,000).
Which occupations will have job opportunities over the next ten years?
Figure 4. Job openings by occupation 2007-2017
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Figure 4 shows the number of job opportunities by occupation over the next ten years. The greatest numbers of job openings are expected to be in:
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Professional occupations (182,000 new job openings);
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Managers and senior officials (162,000);
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Associate professional and technical occupations (141,000);
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Administrative and secretarial (140,000).
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Again, the scale of replacement demand means that there will be job opportunities across all occupations - even those which, in terms of total employment numbers, are declining.
Will jobs in the future require higher levels of qualification?
Figure 5. Employment by highest qualification 2007 and 2017
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The trend in employment is towards a higher skilled workforce.
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Figure 5 shows the change in the qualification profile of employees between 2007 and 2017.
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The proportion of workers with the highest level of qualification (level 5 which includes postgraduate degrees) will double over the next ten years.
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In contrast, there will be a fall in the proportion of the workforce with no qualifications.
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These changes in qualification levels of employment mirror the changes expected to occur in the occupational structure of employment - that is, employment growth will be towards the higher end of the occupational scale including professional and managerial positions. |
